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Climate change might drive species declines by altering species interactions, such as host–parasite interactions. However, few studies have combined experiments, field data, and historical climate records to provide evidence that an interaction between climate change and disease caused any host declines. A recently proposed hypothesis, thethermal mismatch hypothesis, could identify host species that are vulnerable to disease under climate change because it predicts that cool‐ and warm‐adapted hosts should be vulnerable to disease at unusually warm and cool temperatures, respectively. Here, we conduct experiments onAtelopus zeteki, a critically endangered, captively bred frog that prefers relatively cool temperatures, and show that frogs have high pathogen loads and high mortality rates only when exposed to a combination of the pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) and high temperatures, as predicted by thethermal mismatch hypothesis. Further, we tested various hypotheses to explain recent declines experienced by species in the amphibian genusAtelopusthat are thought to be associated withB. dendrobatidisand reveal that these declines are best explained by thethermal mismatch hypothesis. As in our experiments, only the combination of rapid increases in temperature and infectious disease could account for the patterns of declines, especially in species adapted to relatively cool environments. After combining experiments on declining hosts with spatiotemporal patterns in the field, our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that widespread species declines, including possible extinctions, have been driven by an interaction between increasing temperatures and infectious disease. Moreover, our findings suggest that hosts adapted to relatively cool conditions will be most vulnerable to the combination of increases in mean temperature and emerging infectious diseases.

Global climate change is increasing the frequency of unpredictable weather conditions; however, it remains unclear how species‐level and geographic factors, including body size and latitude, moderate impacts of unusually warm or cool temperatures on disease. Because larger and lower‐latitude hosts generally have slower acclimation times than smaller and higher‐latitude hosts, we hypothesised that their disease susceptibility increases under ‘thermal mismatches’ or differences between baseline climate and the temperature during surveying for disease. Here, we examined how thermal mismatches interact with body size, life stage, habitat, latitude, elevation, phylogeny and International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) conservation status to predict infection prevalence of the chytrid fungusBatrachochytrium dendrobatidis(Bd) in a global analysis of 32 291 amphibian hosts. As hypothesised, we found that the susceptibility of larger hosts and hosts from lower latitudes toBdwas influenced by thermal mismatches. Furthermore, hosts of conservation concern were more susceptible than others following thermal mismatches, suggesting that thermal mismatches might have contributed to recent amphibian declines.

Complex ecological relationships, such as host–parasite interactions, are often modeled with laboratory experiments. However, some experimental laboratory conditions, such as temperature or infection dose, are regularly chosen based on convenience or convention, and it is unclear how these decisions systematically affect experimental outcomes. Here, we conducted a meta‐analysis of 58 laboratory studies that exposed amphibians to the pathogenic fungusBatrachochytrium dendrobatidis(Bd) to understand better how laboratory temperature, host life stage, infection dose, and host species affect host mortality. We found that host mortality was driven by thermal mismatches: hosts native to cooler environments experienced greater Bd‐induced mortality at relatively warm experimental temperatures and vice versa. We also found that Bd dose positively predicted Bd‐induced host mortality and that the superfamilies Bufonoidea and Hyloidea were especially susceptible to Bd. Finally, the effect of Bd on host mortality varied across host life stages, with larval amphibians experiencing lower risk of Bd‐induced mortality than adults or metamorphs. Metamorphs were especially susceptible and experienced mortality when inoculated with much smaller Bd doses than the average dose used by researchers. Our results suggest that when designing experiments on species interactions, researchers should carefully consider the experimental temperature, inoculum dose, and life stage, and taxonomy of the host species.